War has always been excluded from standard insurance policies. But in today’s interconnected world, that exclusion is becoming less relevant to real risks businesses face.

Because while war itself may not be covered, its consequences are increasingly shaping the insurance landscape – often in ways that are not immediately visible.

The reality: indirect exposure is rising

Most organisations assume geopolitical conflict is something that happens at a distance – removed from day-to-day operations. In reality, global conflict creates a chain reaction of risk that can directly impact UK businesses through:

  • Supply chain disruption
  • Increased costs and delays
  • Cyber threats and infrastructure risk
  • Volatility in insurance pricing and availability

The result is a growing disconnect between perceived and actual exposure.

Insurance markets are already responding

One of the clearest impacts is in global trade and marine insurance.

In recent years, war-risk premiums for vessels operating in high-risk regions have increased significantly, in some cases rising from below 1% to multiple percentage points of vessel value.

At the same time, insurers have:

  • Reduced capacity in certain regions
  • Tightened policy wordings
  • Introduced more restrictive terms and cancellation provisions

These changes don’t stay contained within conflict zones – they feed into global insurance markets, influencing pricing and availability more broadly.

Supply chains: the hidden vulnerability

Modern businesses rely on complex, international supply chains.

Conflict can disrupt critical routes, such as major shipping lanes, leading to:

  • Delayed goods and materials
  • Increased logistics costs
  • Contractual penalties
  • Inability to fulfil customer demand

From an insurance perspective, these impacts often sit in a grey area. Standard policies may not fully respond unless cover has been specifically structured to reflect these dependencies.

Cyber risk: the new frontline

Geopolitical conflict is no longer confined to physical environments. Cyber attacks linked to state actors are increasing in both frequency and sophistication, targeting infrastructure, businesses, and supply chains.

This introduces a new level of complexity:

  • Attribution becomes difficult
  • “Act of war” exclusions may apply
  • Claims outcomes can become uncertain

For many organisations, this creates a false sense of security, believing cyber cover is in place without fully understanding how it would respond in a geopolitical-driven event.

A shifting role for government

As risks become more systemic, private insurers are not always able to absorb them alone.

We are seeing increasing instances of governments stepping in to support or backstop certain risks, effectively acting as insurers of last resort.

This reflects a broader shift:

Insurance is becoming more closely linked to global stability, regulation, and public policy.

What this means for businesses

The key takeaway is not that businesses need to insure against war. It’s that they need to understand how global instability affects their existing risk profile.

This means:

  • Reviewing supply chain dependencies
  • Stress-testing insurance programmes against disruption scenarios
  • Understanding policy wordings, particularly exclusions and limitations
  • Ensuring cyber cover reflects evolving geopolitical risks

The role of a specialist broker

At D2 Corporate Solutions, we work with clients to look beyond the obvious risks. Our focus is on identifying where exposure may sit beneath the surface, and ensuring insurance programmes are structured to respond accordingly.

Because in today’s environment, risk is no longer defined by location. It’s defined by connection.

Final thought

War may remain excluded from insurance policies. But its consequences are increasingly embedded within them.

Businesses that recognise this and adapt their approach will be far better placed to navigate an uncertain global landscape.

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